Vietnam has officially ended its decades-long two-child policy, lifting limits on the number of children couples can have. The move, passed recently by the National Assembly Standing Committee, marks the end of a 36-year family planning regime and reflects mounting concern over the country’s demographic challenges, including declining fertility, accelerating aging, and the threat of future labor shortages.
According to the Ministry of Health, Vietnam’s total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.91 in 2024—its third consecutive year below the replacement level of 2.1. The TFR has declined steadily from 2.11 in 2021 to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023, and now stands at a historic low. The downward trend is especially pronounced in urban areas like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, where younger families increasingly opt for fewer—or no—children. Many cite the high cost of living and the burden of child-rearing as key reasons for postponing or forgoing parenthood.
Deputy Health Minister Nguyen Thi Lien Huong warned that despite the legal change and ongoing public education campaigns, encouraging childbirth is becoming increasingly difficult. She noted that falling fertility could undermine Vietnam’s long-term economic and social development, heightening risks such as labor shortages and population aging. She called for a shift away from a narrow focus on family planning to a broader, integrated view of population and development.
The amended law grants couples full autonomy in deciding when and how many children to have, eliminating prior restrictions on childbearing age, spacing between births, and number of children. It is the latest in a series of policy shifts aimed at adjusting Vietnam’s population strategy. As early as 2020, the government introduced measures encouraging families to have two children before age 35 and offered tax incentives to some households.
Still, the effect of easing legal restrictions remains uncertain. Nguyen Thuy Linh, a 37-year-old marketing manager in Hanoi, said she and her husband plan to raise only one child. “That way, we can give her the best education and quality of life,” she said. In cities like Ho Chi Minh, many young people cite fast-paced lifestyles, financial stress, and shifting attitudes toward marriage and parenthood as reasons for avoiding childbirth.
Beyond declining birthrates, Vietnam is also grappling with a growing gender imbalance. In 2024, the sex ratio at birth stood at 111.4 boys for every 100 girls—well above the natural norm. Despite legal bans on fetal sex identification and sex-selective abortion, authorities are now moving to increase the maximum fine for violations to 100 million dong (about $3,500) to strengthen enforcement.
At the same time, Vietnam is on a fast track to becoming an aging society. The proportion of the population aged 60 and above is projected to rise from 11.9% in 2019 to over 25% by 2050, with the country expected to officially enter the aging-society threshold by 2038.
While Vietnam still benefits from a relatively young labor force and plays an increasingly strategic role in global supply chains, reversing its fertility decline within the remaining window of demographic advantage has become a pressing policy issue. As demographers point out, the challenge lies not only in encouraging people to have children—but in creating the social and economic conditions that make it possible and desirable for young families to do so.